The trade pact has shielded ~90% of Canadian exports from US tariffs, making its future an affordability and rate-timing issue for lenders, builders, and brokers.
After the central bank held its policy rate near 2% on June 10, economists said trade uncertainty made a year-end rate move unlikely.
Tariff-free cross-border flows in lumber, steel, and aluminum have mattered for Canadian homebuilders, while higher building costs were already constraining new supply nationally.
Because Canada's trade exposure is regional, weaker labour conditions can soften housing demand, tighten mortgage qualification, and raise arrears risk for lenders.
An expert said the pact's outcome could shape Canada's housing market in the second half of 2026, with prospective buyers waiting for clearer signals.
